Laying and Backing at BSP

[bolpx001]

Hi All, Whenever I have a brilliant idea for betting I test it on historical data and then move on to the real test which is live betting. If it is a lay system I will place my lay bet but will also place a back bet to offset potential loss. Likewise if it is a back system then I will place a lay bet to offset the back element. Usually this will result in a small loss but overall it is a good way to trial a new idea without too much risk.
My new idea involved laying Horses at the Betfair SP so I placed my 20 lay bet with a liability of 20 and potential profit of 4.76. My back bet for 20 euro gave me a liability of 20 and a potential profit of over 100 euros. This meant that if the bet went the wrong way I stood to lose 15.24 Needless to say it did, I lost 20 on the back bet and won 4.76 on the lay one. Problem is I can’t figure out how exactly I need to Back and Lay at BSP to have a neutral bet which will neither win nor lose cash. Can anybody help, is it even possible? - Thanks Paul

[Captain Sensible]

The problem is your bets have to be placed before the BSP is reconciled so you'll never know what stakes to use. I've no idea why you'd want to play a neutral bet but basically you need to back the BSP with the same stake of your BSP lay bet. At best you'll only ever get an approximate idea of what the odds will be close to the off.

So laying £20 payout at 3's would be equivalent of backing 3 at £10 (£20/(3-1))

[bolpx001]

Thanks as always you're a star. I suspected as much but hoped I was wrong. The reason for the neutral bet is that it allows the bets to be placed and matched in the real world, just because a price is on offer does not mean that when you come to bet it will be the same. I like to know that the price I think I am getting is the same as the price I actually get. it is then possible to see how they would preform over a period of time with just a quick look at the betting history. All my betting is automated, just set and forget and in a months time I will look at the figures for my latest idea and decide if it is worth continuing. On a personal note If you are ever in Dublin look me up, I would love to buy you a pint or two or even three and say thank you for all your help over the years - best regards Paul