Seriously weird in-running price volatility

[doris_day]

Has anyone else noticed the huge volatility with the in-running horse racing markets this week ?
Either its because of poor liquidity or there are some seriously stupid race readers playing at the moment. Or of course there are some unnaturally tight finishes.
Prices appear to be all over the place which generally signals poor liquidity but whatever the reason, its quite weird.

[doris_day]

I should have done this before of course but I've looked at my data for the last 3 years for the week after Cheltenham and in all cases exactly the same happened.
Perhaps people take time off between Cheltenham and the start of the flat.
I think I'll do the same.........

[mak]

I was suppose to ask the same, I thought that it was a strange week for me -especially previous Saturday (19/03/2011)...

Doris,
can you consider share with us a part of your precious diary?

I am just interesting to study this kind of patterns, in order to be prepared..

For example when your diary "suggest" to start over again?

I have to add that i don't find a reason to stop, in general this week was good for me.

[doris_day]

I'm happy to share as much info as I can but its difficult without knowing exactly which data is most useful.

From my perspective there is no doubt at all that the best months for in-running horse racing are April to August inclusive with May and June being the best two months. Nothing really surprising there I suppose because it correlates to the activity in flat racing, as well as the fact that there is evening racing too and therefore more races. February and March are by far the worst months of the year, and again, this probably isnt much of a surprise because of the weather and small fields (what I do needs bigger fields to be more profitable).

As far as days of the week are concerned, Sunday is the worst by a long way and I don't bother anymore now, then Tuesdays and Wednesdays. Best days are (in order) Friday, Thursday, Saturday and Monday (in fact recently Mondays seem to have become quite strong for me).

As I said, this is from my perspective only and suspect other people will do better at other times depending on what sort of algo they run.

[mak]

Thanks for the info Doris
My "problem" is that i run my bots for almost 4 months right now and after a lot of changes during last month (20 feb-20 Mar) they are performing good.

I have get then to perform right at small & at long distance races, i even make them work at Kempton market (which it was very difficult at the begging for me at least)

Until now, i have seen for example that during 20 Dec to 15 Jan there was low liquidity in the market for example and it was difficult for me to "adjust" the bots. This was easy for me to spot (low liquidity) without much experience. Probably during this period if someone else was trying something even if it was successful later, he would find it hard to make it work and could give up his effort.

Now that we are in a transition period (NH to flat) i guess that we will experience low liquidity again and the absence of some players until the market settles?

I would like to know (if you have such info) all possible periods that the market won't operate "us usual". An other period is August i guess... For example is there a "strange" week after all big festivals?

The main thing is that i don't have the experience of a whole year yet,
and especially these days i am cautious if my bots will remain sussesfull after the switch in the flat period...

Really, if my bots perform ok in AW markets is a good sign isn't it?



* if you asked me i really like this period and i wouldn't like any changes at all

[mak]

This week is strange me for definitely
Really, don't know why but i don't get many bets matched (i think - i can't really watch the markets due to being at the office).Maybe is that we have less competitive races or something?

Doris or anyone any comments please?

[doris_day]

First off, stop going to the office if it gets in the way of your trading. This is a must. Who wants a day job anyway ?

I've stopped my usual algos this week until the flat starts. There is very high volatility which usually is because of poor liquidity, so perhaps your algos are too 'tight' in terms of how they're able to be matched. Personally I'd not relax their tightness but just wait until next when I suspect things will start to become more active again.

I hope so anyway.

[mak]

Next week is the "official" start of the flat season?

I hope so also...

For the office thing, too soon for me for sure to even dream about it i think

[doris_day]

This Saturday is the start of the flat season.

I gave up being employed six years ago and life since hasn't been better, although I did enjoy other people paying for my flights and hotel accommodation. And I do miss the team camerarderie sometimes......

[mak]

So you are saying that the only income for you is from BF and the stock exchange? (i guess )

Very difficult decision

[doris_day]

80% from Betfair, 10% bookmakers, 10% stock/fx markets

[Ian]

The turf flat season actually starts tomorrow at Catterick.

[doris_day]

Thanks for that Ian. I didn't realise. Excellent.

[mak]

02.May.2011
How about today? There is so small liquidity..Probably due to the season change?

Anyone?

[GaryRussell]

It is a public holiday in the UK and it is sunny. Everybody is outside taking advantage of it. We don't get much sun here unlike where you live no doubt