Moderator: 2020vision
by joe lively » Sat Nov 20, 2010 6:14 pm
by danjuma » Sat Nov 20, 2010 8:24 pm
joe lively wrote:...Another idea that this sheet would be useful for, which i think a poster here called 'manager1' came up with. The idea was to monitor the bookies prices just before the off then at the off lay each selection at the bookies price. The idea is that in the first few seconds of the in running market you often get matched. I used to use the old sporting life live shows sheet for this but it stopped working some time ago.
by xraymitch » Sat Nov 20, 2010 8:40 pm
danjuma wrote:Hi xraymitch,
joe livey has explained it to some extent. Basically you compare the bookies back odds against BF lay odds for a selection, and back the selection wih a BOG bookie if the bookie back odds is greater than the selection's Bf lay odds. You then later lay the selection @ BF SP or just before the off. The idea is that the selection would hopefully have shortened by then, and if not and it drifts and then wins, then hopefully, the BOG bookie would pay out at the higher ISP, so you still be in profit or small loss. The author advises not backing/laying selections higher that 15. Only caveats are sometimes the ISP might not be high enough to cover the lay bet, and the ever present threat of the bookies eventually catching up on you and limiting/closing you account. HTH
by danjuma » Sat Nov 20, 2010 9:49 pm
xraymitch wrote:danjuma wrote:Hi xraymitch,
joe livey has explained it to some extent. Basically you compare the bookies back odds against BF lay odds for a selection, and back the selection wih a BOG bookie if the bookie back odds is greater than the selection's Bf lay odds. You then later lay the selection @ BF SP or just before the off. The idea is that the selection would hopefully have shortened by then, and if not and it drifts and then wins, then hopefully, the BOG bookie would pay out at the higher ISP, so you still be in profit or small loss. The author advises not backing/laying selections higher that 15. Only caveats are sometimes the ISP might not be high enough to cover the lay bet, and the ever present threat of the bookies eventually catching up on you and limiting/closing you account. HTH
Thanks Dan for your detailed explanation.
Ray
by joe lively » Mon Nov 22, 2010 4:54 pm
joe lively,
Sheet in the link below still works ok for the SL shows:
http://www.4shared.com/document/AfXxOG6 ... Al__G.html
Regarding the strategy you mentioned above, are you still using this, or was it profitable when you were using it? Cheers
by danjuma » Mon Nov 22, 2010 6:33 pm
joe lively wrote:joe lively,
Sheet in the link below still works ok for the SL shows:
http://www.4shared.com/document/AfXxOG6 ... Al__G.html
Regarding the strategy you mentioned above, are you still using this, or was it profitable when you were using it? Cheers
Thanks for the link, i tested it today and it worked great.
As for that strategy, it did show some profit but to be fair I probably didn't give it long enough to draw a proper conclusion. It had some big swings and I had some horrendous days with it but i generally finished the week positive.
Heres the original discussion:
http://gruss-software.co.uk/forum/viewtopic.php?t=2937&highlight=bookmaking+maths
The strength of Gruss Software is that it’s been designed by one of you, a frustrated sports punter, and then developed by listening to dozens of like-minded enthusiasts.
Gruss is owned and run by brothers Gary and Mark Russell. Gary discovered Betfair in 2004 and soon realised that using bespoke software to place bets was much more efficient than merely placing them through the website.
Gary built his own software and then enhanced its features after trialling it through other Betfair users and reacting to their improvement ideas, something that still happens today.
He started making a small monthly charge so he could work on it full-time and then recruited Mark to help develop the products and Gruss Software was born.
We think it’s the best of its kind and so do a lot of our customers. But you can never stand still in this game and we’ll continue to improve the software if any more great ideas emerge.