Why ??

[excelhasey]

How can a horse In Play odds go below 1.3 and it still loses ??

Why would F5 fall below 1.3 if the horse isn't almost over the line and how did a 9.0 horse win it surely if it was a close race the 9.0 selection would be a lot shorter ??

Any advise anyone on how to protect yourself from this ??

[osknows]

Don't bet in play..

Odds of 1.3 based on 'true' odds give a probability of 1/1.3 = 77% chance of winning, which isn't that great!

Even odds of 1.01 only give probability of 99% so 1 in 100 will go on and lose. Horse racing is full of shock results; I've seen 900/1 no hopers 20 lengths off suddenly decide they want to win an sail past the field.

Stop losses in play are unreliable especially towards the end of the race and odds of 1.3 for a winner don't really offset any losses that are often inevitable.

Welcome to the learning curve...?

[excelhasey]

Ha cheers Os

No chance of you telling me where I can cut corners is there ??

[osknows]

The only advice I can give really is to research yourself as there ARE ways to win consistently BUT the markets constantly evolve and what worked a few months ago may not work today. Most strategy guides that are sold are years old and things have moved on; not all though

This site has each days prices on Betfair http://promo.betfair.com/betfairsp/prices/

This is useful for testing your strategy against real prices. What it doesn't give you though is 'how' the price has moved. Eg minimum price in play may be 1.5 in this data but it doesn't reveal how it got there; e.g. was it 10.0 and tracked smoothly down to 1.5 or did it oscillate wildly for a period before increasing?

Perhaps record the price movements for some markets and test your strategy against that data.

Also, from your first post you've experienced an unlikely event.. is it inevitable because you trade in too many markets? Perhaps your strategy needs to be more selective with a higher risk/reward ratio across fewer markets??

Everything I say may be wrong but I realise that and that's half the battle..!

[orange]

How can a horse In Play odds go below 1.3 and it still loses ??

You'd be surprised how many times a 1.01 gets beat or the amount of times you get 3 horses trading under 1.15 in the same race.

Expect the unexpected, the more you watch the more you see the things that you think can't happen.

Good luck on your voyage of discovery.