Under/over round excel spreadsheet

[ddaann]

Hi guys,
been trying to get hold of this spreadsheet to no avail. Anyone willing to share it, or at least give me some pointers to make it.

Kind regards
Dan

[the lion]

To calculate the round on the book you simply divide 100 by the odds available.

This gives you a percentage figure.

You then add up all the percentages.

If it adds up to exactly 100 then the book is perfectly balanced.

If it adds up to less than 100 then the book is underround and you can make a profit by backing all the selections to appropriate stakes.

Conversely if it adds up to more than 100 then the book is overround and you can make a profit by laying them.

To calculate the stake for each selection you simply multiply your total stake by the percentage obtained for the selection.




Example:

If you have two selections i.e a tennis match and the odds for the fav are 1.25 and for the dog 5, then the percentages are 100 / 1.25 = 80% and 100 / 5 = 20%. This adds up to 100 and the book is perfectly round.

If the odds were 1.3 and 5.5 then the percentages would be 76.92% and 18.18% adding up to 95.10%, the book would be underround by 4.9% and if you wanted to stake 50 pints then you could make a profit by staking 50 x 76.92% = 38.46 pints on the fav and 50 x 18.18 = 9.09 pints on the dog.

If the fav wins you win 11.54 pints on the fav bet and lose your 9.09 pints staked on the dog.

If the dog wins you win 40.91 pints on the dog bet and lose your 38.46 pint stake on the fav.

This means you have a guaranteed profit of 2.45 pints whoever wins.

This is 4.9% of you stake. Which corresponds to the 4.9% underround on the book.

Once you grasp the principle it is dead easy to write it into your spreadsheet.

Of course you have to be aware that you may be paying commision on the winning side of the bet, which has to be taken into account..

Sorry if the example makes it look a bit confusing. Maybe I had a couple too many pints.

[dani3l]

wouldnt your staking result in a profit of 0?

[GeorgeUK]

i kinda agree with the lion - but his staking for 1.3 & 5.5 odds do result in an even profit.

i do it slightly differently

arb = 1/1.3 + 1/5.5 = 0.951 (so agree with 4.9%)

so for a stake of 50, i'd do the calculations slightly differently
1/1.3/0.951*50= 40.44 for 1.3 odds
1/5.5/0.951*50= 9.55 for 5.5 odds

(40.44*(1.3-1))-9.55= 2.58 profit
(9.55*(5.5-1))-40.44= 2.53 profit

pretty much the same thing though

[thunderfoot]

Hi guys,
been trying to get hold of this spreadsheet to no avail. Anyone willing to share it, or at least give me some pointers to make it.

Kind regards
Dan

Try my Arb Calculator at http://www.thunderfoot.f2s.com/betting/

[ddaann]

Thanks guys.
I did manage to make a spreadsheet few weeks ago, been mostly doing football as other sports change odds too fast.
Of course, this only occurs in play, and it's due to 5 seconds delay, this is really hit and miss. Would never leave computer on its own doing this Also, due to liquidity on some foreign matches, I've been mostly making pennies

[the lion]

Hello... George and Dani..

I hate to be pedantic but as far as I can see my staking doesn't return zero profit.

It would only return zero if the book was 100%

It might be easier to understand if you look at this screenshot:





If Davydenko wins profit = 11.54 minus 9.09 staked on Chela = 2.45

If Chela wins profit = 40.91 minus 38.46 staked on Davyboy = 2.45

Or go ahead and try it with a couple of dummy bets in Betfair..


Does work out more or less the same as yours George but I think the calculation is a little simpler.

Sorry to split hairs but I just had to check my workings. I thought that if I was wrong it would explain why I never seemed to make much profit!

And Deja have you tried using it on two different markets, for example No Next Goal and 0-0 or Over/Under 2.5 and 3 Goals or more?

There was a guy posted on here who says he make thousands looking for these types of opportunities but he didn't say how much he was staking.

This is the thread here:

http://gruss-software.co.uk/forum/viewt ... sc&start=0



Anyways hope this makes my workings clearer!

[GeorgeUK]

No probs lion - simplicity is usually best.

This was the method i used when trying to arb results, but gave that up.
Still use the same calculation though as it ensures i use the full amount to gamble.

Your results are definately not wrong.

Now, if you find a way of making consistant profits...

[warriorfullights]

What you did is pretty amazing, George. Does this tip still applicable until today. I can't seem to work on it properly.