Tennis Betting

[andak fedal]

I have been trying for the last few weeks to come up with a system for gaining consitent profits (however small) on tennis using tick offset and stop loss, without knowing much about the players or perhaps even care who wins. So far to not much avail. I am in profit but not really by sticking to any guidelines I could follow that I could see working long term.

I believe with so many fluctuations in odds there must be a way to take a slice in most games whilst still covering the losses and 1.01 trains. Has anyone else had the same thoughts and tried such systems that don't require players to win the match?Do you think it is possible to profit long term with little or no knowledge.

I would be really interested to hear any experiences including failures as it might help me decide I am wasting my time!

Thanks

[Spike]

I don't know a darned thing about horses but I make good and consistent profits in running- so it's possible, but it's not easy. You can't expect to come up with a money printing strategy in half an hour or using only very obvious things, it takes a bit of work. Do the work and you can make money in any market- or better yet, don't do it, and I'll have your money.......

[andak fedal]

Hi there,

I'm back to try gruss once again after failing to find a decent automated strategy on the tennis using betting assistant. No problem with the software, rather my methodologies were a little basic.

Since then I have been trading tennis pretty successfully at modest stakes. I am a pretty good reader of a tennis match and am good at entering the market at value but I'm getting tired of watching so much tennis!

I also now have better programming skills, particularly in excel so I thought why not give the excel triggered betting a go! I am a little concerned that my edge so far has been watching the match unfold live and that the prices in tennis are generally pretty tight across the board. I figure this has to be the case most of the time in a sport that can easily be modelled and where there is only 2 outcomes?!

Anyway, I was wondering if anyone would be kind enough to help me with my first 2 questions. The first is a technical one, the second a theoretical.

1) Is there an easy way to tell which set a tennis match is in or when the end of a set has been reached?

2) Is it mathematically sound to lay at a correct price if you think it has a good chance of changing in your favour? Have I found value by default here or not. My quandry is that if I lay at 1.1 I have done so because I feel it has a good chance of becaoming 1.5 so I would normally trade out for a levelprofit but would it be better to let it run as since it has gone to 1.5 I must have found value?? I basically can't decide if I have found value in the odds or am just taking advantage of probable fluctuations. Is it possible that it's the latter?

Would be great to hear some success stories from any others who have made bots for tennis to help inspire me once again!

[alrodopial]

For question 2

Since you are profitable with your trades this means that you spot value.
When you lay at 1.1 you are doing it because of the value you see.
You are getting out at 1.5 because you believe it is a fair price and has no value .
Assuming that these two "positions" are correct you:
1. You know what is your profit if you exit now.
2. You can calculate your theoretical profit if you don't exit at 1.5 simply by calculating that the chances for your lay to be successful (whole lay bet) is 1-1/1.5 = 33% ( the chances for your bet to come true - remember that 1.5 is a fair price at this point - ).

I didn't do the maths but I have the feeling that is the same at the two cases?

[andak fedal]

Thanks for your reply alrodopial and I'm pretty sure this is the correct answer.

I just wonder whether you can ever take advantage of market fluctuations without actually betting at a value price just because the nature of this game is for things to change often in your favour temporaralily.

Maybe I'm getting too bogged down with this anyhow and I just need to program a bot to let my bets run and see what happens!

Can anyone help with finding out what set we are in or even the score? Would I have to use external resources for this or a fudge such as set one winner - 1000 maybe?

[doris_day]

Take a look on tinternet for Mort Hill's Tennis Calculator - its a nice piece of kit and is what Peter Webb based his tennis mystic thingy on. I'm not certain if its downloadable anywhere at the moment, so if you cant find it let me know and I'll upload it somewhere.

As far as where to get set data etc from Bet365 has probably the most up to date scores around. They also often have 'live' tennis video feeds.

[andak fedal]

Thanks Doris, I hadn't heard of that but I am very intrigues to see what price it comes up with, I did a few searches and all the links are broken for it so if you could upload it, I would be most grateful.

In terms of working out when we are at the end of a set I was talking about in the excel spreadshett to trigger a bet. Do you know a good way of determining this?
Thanks again

[doris_day]

I would assume you'd need the sheet to be able to import the current score from somewhere. I'm sure someone like osknows could organise that for you. Send him a pm.

I've uploaded Mort Hill's In Play Tennis Calculator here:http://www.sendspace.com/file/vnwvg2

[doris_day]

Make sure you click on the 'Click here to start download from sendspace' and NOT the flashing 'Download' button on the left.

[andak fedal]

Thanks for this Doris, much appreciated.